A new study from Back to Blue, an initiative of Economist Impact and The Nippon Foundation, says current United Nations efforts to halt the growth in plastic consumption and to “bend the curve” on plastics use will not achieve its goal by 2050.
The study indicated that a ban on unnecessary single-use plastic products (SUPP) yields the greatest impact, doing more than either an EPR mandate or a plastics tax to restrain consumption growth. Models showed that, with a ban in place, plastic consumption would be 1.48 times higher in 2050 compared with the 2019 baseline.
Extended producer responsibility (EPR) programs, authors point out, are still a vital part of the solution. EPR will improve waste collection and increase recycling rates, thus averting plastic leakage into the environment. However, EPR schemes will have little impact on the growth in plastic consumption, which is projected to rise to 1.66 times the 2019 baseline by the year 2050, only fractionally lower than the 1.73 forecast in the business-as-usual scenario.
The report also concludes that if plastic consumption growth is to be reversed by mid-century, the plastics treaty will need to ‘stipulate more stringent measures and conditions’ than factored into the present model.